Tesla’s game on Index-funds.
Note: Don’t have the data to prove it but have enough red flags to show that the entire TESLA gang with financial institutions are after public money.
Here are some of the points which concerns me
1) Elon Musk considered (82$) ( before splitting 5 for 1–420$) as a fair price point to take Tesla private. Presently it valued at almost 850% of his own fair point. Most of the surge has taken place with the assumption that Tesla will join the S&P 500 and once it joins, index funds have to include Tesla in their portfolio.
2) Ebitda is actually adjusted. Everyone adjusts their Editda figures to complete their story. Instead of accepting the actual financial results, GAAP (Generally adjusted Account principles) give more room to cover the trickery.
3) The Majority of profitability in the last four quarters seems to have come from selling the environmental regulatory credits (taxpayers’ money).
4) Telsa said before Tuesday open that it entered into an equity distribution agreement with a number of Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays, BNP, BofA Securities, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, SG Americas, and Wells Fargo.
Why would they need so many banks for equity distribution, seems like make everyone your accomplice so no one could point fingers at you and throw any red flags? Some of these banks have argued against Tesla’s valuation in the past and slashed their price targets.
5) Today, with 70 % of their equity was raised in 2020 alone. How come a company with profits and free cash flow would need to generate the cash through these offerings. As per their figures, they already have 14$B reserves. Why raise an extra 5B$?
6.a) With S&P 500 inclusion, the stress is on index funds to include Tesla in their portfolio. This money will come directly from 401k, retirement accounts of people. The stock pumping has been done so great that most existing investors will need to clear less than 10% of their inventory to profit from existing prices.
6.b) S&P 500 inclusion itself is fucked up. By using the market value instead of a more conservative approach like (p/e, profit percentage, cash flow vs valuation, etc…) by just looking at the net positivity of the last four/five quarters and market valuation, every speculative company with some incentive from the government could be in S&P 500. I’m not even in finance but I can see this attack on index-funds, why not anyone has come with a more intelligent way of S&P 500 inclusion? I wonder, Should the S&P 500 focus on maximum gains or maximum valuation?
7) Sooner or later when a boom cycle starts, the short-sellers who have been bleeding so far will take out and the index funds have to write their investment off. This might seem far off but in this way, all financial institutions win except for the average 401k investors. The timing and method might be off but this is the only way all financial institutions would win.
8) No matter what tesla fans think of, Tesla at the moment is a car company. Tesla is not the Apple version of the car
a. Engagement of mobile phones has been increasing and investment in iPhone, mac books could be justified because of the convenience it offers throughout the day in work, personal life. Cars are still solving one problem that is transportation, people will switch to their mobile for entertainment.
b. Phones could be offered without insurance, unlike cars.
c. Phones are subsidized by Service providers while Tesla might run out of environmental credits.
d. Maintenance cost of the iPhone is next to zero while that of Tesla is insurance, battery degradation, parking, etc…
e. Apple maintains a monopoly in the market and has seen exponential growth while Tesla after ten years has been at the point of selling hyperinflated stocks every three months so that they could show some profit next quarter.
f. Unlike Apple iOS, tesla does not hold an edge over the battery technology, while motors and cars could be manufactured by almost any operator, the values lie in designing the power electronics and drives which run the motor on battery efficiently. Tesla does not hold a monopoly in self-driving, battery, or power electronics, its only monopoly is cashing out environmental credits and show them as profits.
My intent of posting this is to provide other dimensions of thought and calling out a spade. I’m disturbed by the fact that American capitalists are chasing after common people’s money. P.S: I do not hold any position in Tesla. I just want to call a spade ‘spade’.